CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-08-05T14:43:55Z
## Message ID: 20230805-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-08-05T07:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~1044 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 63/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx (minor impact) and Parker Solar Probe (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-08-08T21:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2023-08-07T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-08-07T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: Simulation and subsequent modeling assumes a source longitude for the CME of 63 degrees; any eastward deflection inherent in the CME may make for a stronger event at Earth than modeled.

This CME event (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.6 flare from Active Region 11386 (N11W65) with ID 2023-08-05T06:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-08-05T07:20Z, SEP at STEREO A with ID 2023-08-05T10:00:00-SEP-001, SEP at SOHO with IDs 2023-08-05T10:19:00-SEP-001 and 2023-08-05T10:47:00-SEP-001, and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2023-08-05T11:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20230805-AL-002, 20230805-AL-003, 20230805-AL-006.)


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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